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Source: Observer Network
The dispute between Hong Kong and Shenzhen GDP has always been a hot topic in the Chinese economy. In 2017, according to different calculation methods, Shenzhen and Hong Kong can claim that their economy is larger. But in 2018, no matter how it is calculated, Shenzhen has undoubtedly overwhelmed Hong Kong.
The website of the Census and Statistics Department of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region released data on February 27th. In 2018, Hong Kong achieved a GDP of 2,845,317 million ports, or 285,453 million ports, a year-on-year increase of only 3%.
Earlier reports said that in terms of comparative economic aggregates, the total GDP of Hong Kong should be converted according to the average exchange rate of the RMB against the Hong Kong dollar.
In view of this, according to the exchange rate provided by the official website of the Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department, the average exchange rate of RMB against Hong Kong dollars in 2018 is 1.1855. Based on this calculation, Hong Kong's GDP last year was equivalent to about 224.098 billion yuan. The GDP of Shenzhen in 2018 was 2421.918 billion yuan, which was 22.1 billion higher than Hong Kong.
This means that in the 40th anniversary of reform and opening up, Shenzhen's GDP surpassed Hong Kong for the first time and became the number one city in Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macau.
At this point, China's five largest cities have a new economic scale, with the yuan as the unit, Shanghai ranked first with 3,267.9 billion, Beijing with 303.2 billion, second with Shenzhen, and Hong Kong with the third to fourth. Guangzhou is still in fifth place.
Shenzhen will continue to widen the gap with Hong Kong
Xiao Bian noted that while Shenzhen's total GDP exceeded Hong Kong last year, Shenzhen's GDP grew at a rate of 7.6% year-on-year, much higher than Hong Kong.
The Nikkei Chinese website once published that on the occasion of the 40th anniversary of China's reform and opening up, the reversal of GDP in Hong Kong and Shenzhen reflects the development track of China's economy.
In the return of 1997, Hong Kong's GDP accounted for 18% of China's overall, and then with the rapid growth of China's economy, the proportion fell to about 2%, surpassed by Shanghai and Beijing.
Comparison of economic aggregates between Hong Kong and Shenzhen in the past 40 years of reform and opening up
"With the increase in external pressures, Hong Kong's economic growth slowed from 4.1% in the first half of 2018 to 2.1% in the second half, while the fourth quarter increased by only 1.3%, the lowest since the first quarter of 2016. Overall In other words, the Hong Kong economy has increased by 3% in 2018, which is at the lower limit of the budget forecast last year," Hong Kong's Financial Secretary Chen Maobo said on February 27 when the Legislative Council announced the Budget.
However, Chen Maobo also pointed out that the annual growth rate of 3% is still “higher than the average growth rate of 2.8% in the past decade.†Chen Maobo expects Hong Kong's economy to grow by 2%-3% in real terms in 2019. In his Budget speech, he said: As the global economic outlook is full of variables, it will constrain Hong Kong's economic performance this year. If external adverse factors deteriorate, it will not only affect Hong Kong's export and asset markets, but also Hong Kong's investment and private consumption will weaken.
In contrast, Shenzhen's economic growth this year is still relatively high. On the 18th of last month. Shenzhen Mayor Chen Rugui pointed out in the government work report that in 2019, the expected growth target of Shenzhen's regional GDP is about 7%. This means that by the end of this year, the gap between the economic aggregates of Shenzhen and Hong Kong will further widen.
However, although the total size of the economy has declined, the total population of Hong Kong is only 7,482,500, and the per capita GDP in 2018 is as high as 320,000. The per capita GDP of the North and Guangzhou is still less than half of that of Hong Kong.
It is worth noting that the gap between the economic aggregates of Hong Kong and Guangzhou is also shrinking as they are overtaken by Shenzhen. According to data from the Guangzhou Municipal Bureau of Statistics, in 2018, Guangzhou achieved a regional GDP of 2,285.935 billion. This means that the gap between the economic aggregates of Guangzhou and Hong Kong has narrowed to more than 100 billion yuan. According to the Guangzhou government work report, this year, the main expected goal of Guangzhou's economic and social development is to increase the regional GDP by 6-6.5%. Perhaps the economic scale of Guangzhou will catch up with Hong Kong this year.
Hong Kong urgently needs transformation
In the Budget speech of the day, Chen Maobo said that as a small open economy, in recent months, Hong Kong's economy has been affected, growth has slowed significantly, and corporate confidence in the outlook has weakened. Under this circumstance, it is particularly important to make a correct judgment on the current international political and economic situation and to formulate the direction of economic development in accordance with Hong Kong's own advantages.
He said that the general direction of preparing for this year's budget is "supporting enterprises, ensuring employment, stabilizing the economy, and benefiting the people's livelihood."
"Even if the clouds are densely covered, the back is still dazzling in the sun; even if the mountains are heavy, it will not hinder our confidence in the future of Hong Kong," he said.
Last year, Hong Kong media quoted Chen Maobo, the Financial Secretary of Hong Kong, as saying that Hong Kong has relied too much on real estate finance for many years. Even if the Hong Kong government is willing to spend a lot of money, it will not be easy to catch up with Shenzhen.
According to the Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, Mrs Carrie Lam, the financial industry accounted for 90% of Hong Kong's GDP in 2017.
On the 18th of this month, the “Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao Dawan District Development Plan†(hereinafter referred to as “Outlineâ€) was officially released, and it is proposed to form a world-class Bay Area and a world-class urban agglomeration framework in 2022, and realize the Dawan District Market in 2035. interconnection.
The outline uses Hong Kong, Macao, Guangzhou and Shenzhen as the core engines of regional development to enhance the role of radiation in the development of surrounding areas. The four major cities have different divisions of labor, and repeatedly emphasize that Guangdong Jiucheng and Hong Kong and Macao SAR should be integrated. Complementary.
The Outline proposes to build Hong Kong into an Asia Pacific International Legal and Dispute Resolution Service Centre and support Hong Kong's logistics and supply chain management application technologies, textile and garment, information and communication technology, auto parts, nano and advanced materials and five research and development centers and Hong Kong. Science Park, Hong Kong Cyberport Construction.
In this regard, Mrs Lam’s published article in the Hong Kong Commercial Daily pointed out that the development of the Greater Bay Area is an opportunity for Hong Kong to find new growth points for the Hong Kong economy, promote the development of the industry and broaden the lives of Hong Kong residents. Space makes Dawan District a vast hinterland of Hong Kong.
To better co-ordinate and promote Hong Kong's participation in the construction of the Greater Bay Area, Mrs Lam has set up and personally chaired a "Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau-A-Dawan District Construction Steering Committee" including the top of the SAR Government. In addition, the Development Office of the Greater Bay Area of ​​Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macau will be established and the Development Specialist of the Dawan District will be appointed.
On the 26th, Guo Zhenhua, chairman of the Federation of Hong Kong Industries, said at the high-end forum of the Think Tank in Dawan District, Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macau. "With the strategic support of the country, Hong Kong's industry will surely climb to a new level and promote Hong Kong's third economic transformation."
Editor in charge: Ge Hongyan
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