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This morning, a terrifying news came out of the industry – the price of wrapping paper has dropped significantly. According to insiders, a leading paper company in China announced price cuts, 300 tons of tile per ton, and 200 yuan per ton for cattle. At the same time, the nation's waste has continued to decline for several days. The waste paper purchase price in individual areas has fallen below RMB 900/t.
As Bao Xiaobian predicted at the beginning of the year, wealth has become a brick, and spending has become so high that paper prices have finally failed.
Once thrilling paper prices surge
In September 2016, under the double boost of the G20's production shutdown and environmental protection storm, the papermaking industry, which had been forced for five years, finally set off a wave of price increases. From late October onwards, paper prices fell into madness in the wake of panic grabbing by downstream cardboard and carton companies.
Two months later, paper mills across the country set off a wave of price increases. Each time, the price rose from 50 yuan to 500 yuan, and wadding increased by 1,500 yuan per ton. Linerboard also rose by about 1,000 yuan. Historically high. In spite of this, the enthusiasm of the downstream manufacturers to grab paper is still unstoppable, and the original paper stocks have always maintained the lowest level in history.
On the first day after the New Year holiday, the wrapping paper market seemed to freeze overnight. Many large paper-making enterprises in the Pearl River Delta received calls from the downstream cardboard factory to cancel their orders almost at the same time. At the same time, there was a panic-wide price cut in the cardboard industry. Some of the resolute bosses offered 18 point discounts, and individual paper mills even cut 30 points in one breath, hoping to ease the enormous pressure brought by high-value paper stocks by means of price changes. However, the large-scale paper mill decided to withstand the pressure of price cuts and maintain the price of the original paper.
After the Spring Festival, the paper mills followed suit and continued to advocate price increases. Unexpectedly, due to the depressed consumer market and the high inventory of cardboard cartons, the price increase did not inspire the market's desire to purchase. Wait and see for a month, seeing no hope of economic recovery, while small and medium-sized paper mills are secretly cutting prices.
In the face of various unfavorable situations, a certain leading paper industry will no longer act as an endorsement for high prices and no longer act as a protective umbrella for the withdrawal of small and medium-sized paper mills.
The reason for paper price diving is actually that for this wave of raw paper price reduction, the reasons have been analyzed and reminded to the paper packaging companies not to paper. The reason for this is roughly the following:
Market demand at 1C was unexpectedly weak.
On the one hand, the surge in prices before the Spring Festival triggered the nervousness of carton users. Some of the orders that should have belonged to the year were digested in advance. In the second aspect, affected by the suspension of production of nationwide industrial enterprises last year, the income of many migrant workers continued to shrink, affecting consumption. Third, after the Spring Festival, the government continues to push forward the iron and steel industry, putting pressure on the consumer industry and seriously affecting future consumption.
2B client enters wait-and-see mode.
Before the Spring Festival, corrugated paperboard mills and third-class cartons were due to escalate to the price of paper in March. As a result, just after New Year's Day, it was found that orders fell sharply, and orders for raw paper were cancelled. After the Spring Festival, although the paper mills tried to force the downstream manufacturers to purchase again through price increases, the cash flow was actually lacking in the physical industry after several years of exploitation, and there was no easy way out. Finally, the paper price broke in the weakest link, and the small and medium slate mills had to cut prices to sell them.
3 Strong recovery in papermaking capacity.
The wave of paper price soaring ahead of the Spring Festival has stimulated the enthusiasm of many small and medium-sized paper-making companies. Some of the medium-sized and small-sized paper companies that have been de-capacity have taken the opportunity to resume production, resulting in a significant increase in the production capacity of packaging paper and weakening the positive effect of lending side reforms on leading enterprises. .
4 huge price reduction space.
Although the large-scale paper mills insisted on not reducing prices after the Spring Festival, people with clear eyes knew that the price of paper was severely detached from the cost. Some small and medium-sized paper mills still have large profits even if the price per ton of paper is reduced by 800 yuan. Therefore, the paper price alliance is not solid. In addition, the imported base paper is far lower than the domestic paper price, such as Indonesian core to the factory price of 3,300 yuan / ton, the European core to the manufacturer but also 3,500 yuan / ton, forcing some customers to instead seek to import the base paper.
5 The exchange rate and the dollar increase interest rates.
Since December of last year, as the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar has stabilized at the 7th mark as predicted, international pulp prices have remained stable. The recent increase in interest rates for the US dollar basically has no suspense. Speculators have taken profits, commodities have declined, and paper prices have been hit hard.
Information Processing: Carton Street
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