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In 2012, China's economic development environment is relatively complicated. Under the circumstances of a significant slowdown in global economic growth, domestic economic growth is also facing greater downward pressure. The Party Central Committee and the State Council have adhered to the general tone of striving for stability and progress, placing steady growth in a more important position, and gradually stabilizing economic operations. It is expected that the annual economic growth will be slightly higher than 7.5%. In this context, the paper industry has maintained a growth trend in 2012 and achieved a basic balance between production and sales. However, the overall economic efficiency of the industry has declined significantly, and some papermaking enterprises have increased production and operation difficulties. Domestic pulp and paper production and consumption and import and export volume are expected for the whole year of 2012:
(1) The total production of paper pulp for papermaking is about 78.5 million tons, an increase of about 1.6% year-on-year.
(2) The paper pulp consumption was about 93.5 million tons, an increase of about 3.4% year-on-year;
(3) The total production of paper and paperboard was about 103 million tons, an increase of about 3.7% year-on-year;
(4) Apparent consumption of paper and cardboard was about 11 million tons, an increase of about 3.6% year-on-year.
Looking forward to 2013, the international environment is full of complexity and uncertainty, and the domestic economic operation is in the process of seeking a new balance. While continuing to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy, the state will focus on the combination of demand and supply policies, short-term policies and medium- and long-term policies, enhance policy flexibility and effectiveness, focus on solving difficulties in production and operation, and accelerate structural adjustment. The pace, foster new competitive advantages, promote the substantial transformation of growth power conversion and development mode, and promote the smooth operation of the national economy, which will bring a better economic operating environment to the paper industry.
According to the domestic paper industry production and paper raw material supply and the domestic and international paper market trends, we believe that the overall situation of domestic paper industry production and market in 2012 and 2013 is:
1. Paper production and consumption will increase overall, but the growth rate will decrease. With the gradual stabilization of the domestic economy and the growth of the economic aggregate, it will continue to drive the domestic market demand for total paper, and the growth of demand is also the paper industry of China. Providing development space, it will certainly promote the domestic paper and paperboard production and total consumption continue to grow, but the growth rate will gradually slow down.
2. Market competition has intensified, and the economic benefits of enterprises have declined. In 2012, the overall operation of the paper industry was basically stable, and production and sales were basically balanced. However, due to the bad economic environment, the slowdown in demand growth and the increase in production factors, the operating rate of enterprises has been insufficient, and the production costs have risen. In addition, due to the expansion of production capacity and the slowdown in market demand, the prices of most products have declined. The profit margin has narrowed, profits have fallen, and companies with difficulties in production and operation have increased.
3. Transformation and upgrading, elimination of backwardness, accelerated enterprise integration speed due to factors such as capacity expansion, production cost increase, market changes and increased competition pressure will prompt enterprises to accelerate transformation and upgrading, from the past investment-based investment development to training internal strength, The development of quality and efficiency in improving production efficiency and product quality and reducing production costs will also accelerate the elimination of outdated equipment and the speed of mergers and acquisitions and integration of resources among enterprises.
4. New technology application and new product development will accelerate the rapid increase of production capacity, increase market competition, and increase pressure on production costs, which will prompt enterprises to accelerate the application of new technologies, especially energy-saving and emission reduction technologies, in order to reduce production costs. At the same time, it will also increase the development of new products to cope with market changes and enhance competitiveness.
5. Increased friction in international trade, blocked export of paper products. With the increase of total production in China and the improvement of product quality and variety, the production volume of most products has basically met the domestic market demand, resulting in a decrease in the import volume of paper and cardboard products. At the same time, the total export volume is also increasing year by year, especially for coated and uncoated printing papers with large capacity increase in recent years in China.
Due to the global economic downturn and the rise of trade protectionism, countries around the world are very concerned about the growth of China's paper exports, and they have taken restrictive measures to limit the export of paper products in China. At present, the United States, the European Union, Argentina, Thailand, Pakistan and Taiwan have filed "sLR" or "double-reverse" investigations on the export of coated or uncoated paper in China, and some have already made a ruling. At present, there are two countries that are also preparing to submit a “double-reverse†investigation, which has created obstacles for China's paper and cardboard products to enter the international market, which will affect the export of our production enterprises in the future. This issue should be brought to the attention of enterprises.
6. Imports of commercial pulp and waste paper continue to increase the global economic downturn, and the pulp and paper market is also difficult to protect itself. From the information we have, the paper production and demand in the economically developed countries have declined to varying degrees. Therefore, there is no more incremental demand for commercial pulp and waste paper. As the global production capacity of commercial pulp is still increasing (especially bleached hardwood pulp), suppliers from all over the world are eyeing China with incremental demand, and this year international pulp prices have fallen compared to last year, the major domestic paper companies and Traders have also increased the purchase of commercial pulp and waste paper. According to the estimation of domestic paper production and domestic pulp production and waste paper recycling, it is expected that the volume of imported paper pulp and waste paper will increase significantly this year, which will be squeezed into domestic raw pulp production and domestic waste paper recycling. the amount.
7. Increased emission reduction policies and management With the implementation of new standards for water pollutant discharge in the pulp and paper industry, the management of total COD, BOD, ammonia nitrogen emissions and concentration indicators will be more stringent, especially for wastewater discharge in standards. The tightening of restrictions has led to an increase in the investment and operating costs of production companies in wastewater treatment.
At present, the Ministry of Environmental Protection is formulating a total pollutant control plan during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†period, which will implement stricter and more detailed management of pollutant emissions from the paper industry (including central control management, full-caliber statistics, and total pollutant trading management measures). Etc.) If this implementation will have an impact on the subsequent development of the paper industry.
Looking at the economic operation of the pulp and paper industry in 2012, the signs of the growth phase transition are more obvious. In 2013, the global economy is still in the post-crisis adjustment period, the international environment is full of complexity and uncertainty; the original domestic competitive advantage and growth momentum are gradually weakening, and new advantages have not yet formed, market confidence and expectations are unstable, paper industry Economic operations are in the process of transformation and the search for a new balance. Therefore, we must follow the strategic goals and tasks put forward by the national "Twelfth Five-Year Plan", optimize the structure, upgrade the transformation, eliminate backward production capacity, enhance the ability of new product development, and practice internal strength in technology, management, cost control, etc., as soon as possible. The paper industry has changed from a quantity-oriented to a quality-oriented and profit-oriented type, and has comprehensively improved the overall level and competitiveness of the papermaking industry, and truly has become stronger and stronger.
(1) The total production of paper pulp for papermaking is about 78.5 million tons, an increase of about 1.6% year-on-year.
(2) The paper pulp consumption was about 93.5 million tons, an increase of about 3.4% year-on-year;
(3) The total production of paper and paperboard was about 103 million tons, an increase of about 3.7% year-on-year;
(4) Apparent consumption of paper and cardboard was about 11 million tons, an increase of about 3.6% year-on-year.
Looking forward to 2013, the international environment is full of complexity and uncertainty, and the domestic economic operation is in the process of seeking a new balance. While continuing to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy, the state will focus on the combination of demand and supply policies, short-term policies and medium- and long-term policies, enhance policy flexibility and effectiveness, focus on solving difficulties in production and operation, and accelerate structural adjustment. The pace, foster new competitive advantages, promote the substantial transformation of growth power conversion and development mode, and promote the smooth operation of the national economy, which will bring a better economic operating environment to the paper industry.
According to the domestic paper industry production and paper raw material supply and the domestic and international paper market trends, we believe that the overall situation of domestic paper industry production and market in 2012 and 2013 is:
1. Paper production and consumption will increase overall, but the growth rate will decrease. With the gradual stabilization of the domestic economy and the growth of the economic aggregate, it will continue to drive the domestic market demand for total paper, and the growth of demand is also the paper industry of China. Providing development space, it will certainly promote the domestic paper and paperboard production and total consumption continue to grow, but the growth rate will gradually slow down.
2. Market competition has intensified, and the economic benefits of enterprises have declined. In 2012, the overall operation of the paper industry was basically stable, and production and sales were basically balanced. However, due to the bad economic environment, the slowdown in demand growth and the increase in production factors, the operating rate of enterprises has been insufficient, and the production costs have risen. In addition, due to the expansion of production capacity and the slowdown in market demand, the prices of most products have declined. The profit margin has narrowed, profits have fallen, and companies with difficulties in production and operation have increased.
3. Transformation and upgrading, elimination of backwardness, accelerated enterprise integration speed due to factors such as capacity expansion, production cost increase, market changes and increased competition pressure will prompt enterprises to accelerate transformation and upgrading, from the past investment-based investment development to training internal strength, The development of quality and efficiency in improving production efficiency and product quality and reducing production costs will also accelerate the elimination of outdated equipment and the speed of mergers and acquisitions and integration of resources among enterprises.
4. New technology application and new product development will accelerate the rapid increase of production capacity, increase market competition, and increase pressure on production costs, which will prompt enterprises to accelerate the application of new technologies, especially energy-saving and emission reduction technologies, in order to reduce production costs. At the same time, it will also increase the development of new products to cope with market changes and enhance competitiveness.
5. Increased friction in international trade, blocked export of paper products. With the increase of total production in China and the improvement of product quality and variety, the production volume of most products has basically met the domestic market demand, resulting in a decrease in the import volume of paper and cardboard products. At the same time, the total export volume is also increasing year by year, especially for coated and uncoated printing papers with large capacity increase in recent years in China.
Due to the global economic downturn and the rise of trade protectionism, countries around the world are very concerned about the growth of China's paper exports, and they have taken restrictive measures to limit the export of paper products in China. At present, the United States, the European Union, Argentina, Thailand, Pakistan and Taiwan have filed "sLR" or "double-reverse" investigations on the export of coated or uncoated paper in China, and some have already made a ruling. At present, there are two countries that are also preparing to submit a “double-reverse†investigation, which has created obstacles for China's paper and cardboard products to enter the international market, which will affect the export of our production enterprises in the future. This issue should be brought to the attention of enterprises.
6. Imports of commercial pulp and waste paper continue to increase the global economic downturn, and the pulp and paper market is also difficult to protect itself. From the information we have, the paper production and demand in the economically developed countries have declined to varying degrees. Therefore, there is no more incremental demand for commercial pulp and waste paper. As the global production capacity of commercial pulp is still increasing (especially bleached hardwood pulp), suppliers from all over the world are eyeing China with incremental demand, and this year international pulp prices have fallen compared to last year, the major domestic paper companies and Traders have also increased the purchase of commercial pulp and waste paper. According to the estimation of domestic paper production and domestic pulp production and waste paper recycling, it is expected that the volume of imported paper pulp and waste paper will increase significantly this year, which will be squeezed into domestic raw pulp production and domestic waste paper recycling. the amount.
7. Increased emission reduction policies and management With the implementation of new standards for water pollutant discharge in the pulp and paper industry, the management of total COD, BOD, ammonia nitrogen emissions and concentration indicators will be more stringent, especially for wastewater discharge in standards. The tightening of restrictions has led to an increase in the investment and operating costs of production companies in wastewater treatment.
At present, the Ministry of Environmental Protection is formulating a total pollutant control plan during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†period, which will implement stricter and more detailed management of pollutant emissions from the paper industry (including central control management, full-caliber statistics, and total pollutant trading management measures). Etc.) If this implementation will have an impact on the subsequent development of the paper industry.
Looking at the economic operation of the pulp and paper industry in 2012, the signs of the growth phase transition are more obvious. In 2013, the global economy is still in the post-crisis adjustment period, the international environment is full of complexity and uncertainty; the original domestic competitive advantage and growth momentum are gradually weakening, and new advantages have not yet formed, market confidence and expectations are unstable, paper industry Economic operations are in the process of transformation and the search for a new balance. Therefore, we must follow the strategic goals and tasks put forward by the national "Twelfth Five-Year Plan", optimize the structure, upgrade the transformation, eliminate backward production capacity, enhance the ability of new product development, and practice internal strength in technology, management, cost control, etc., as soon as possible. The paper industry has changed from a quantity-oriented to a quality-oriented and profit-oriented type, and has comprehensively improved the overall level and competitiveness of the papermaking industry, and truly has become stronger and stronger.
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