Look at the paper market analysis last week to predict the trend of domestic paper operations

This week, the paper market remained largely stable, but with a subdued tone across the industry. As the traditional paper sector enters its off-season, regional markets are experiencing weak demand, slow shipments, and an overall lack of momentum. The decline in international paper prices has further dampened the outlook, making the situation even more challenging for market participants. Looking at the market analysis, the paper industry is still grappling with seasonal weakness, with most regions reporting low activity. Sales remain sluggish, and the general atmosphere is one of uncertainty. With global prices continuing to fall, the pressure on domestic producers is increasing, and the market is expected to remain in a cautious state for the coming weeks. In terms of the industry chain, the domestic waste yellow paper market maintained stability from last week, but local markets continued to show signs of weakness. Prices remained low, and sales volumes declined, leading to a negative sentiment among industry players. Regarding industry developments: 1. **Policy**: The "Water Pollution Prevention Action Plan," commonly known as "Water Ten," was recently approved by the State Council and is expected to be officially released next month. After multiple revisions, this policy will introduce stricter regulations and accountability measures in areas such as wastewater treatment, industrial discharge, and pollution control. It signals a new era of stringent oversight, which could significantly impact paper mills and related industries. 2. **International**: According to data from the Japan Paper Federation, the demand for paper and paperboard in Japan has been declining since reaching a peak of 31.96 million tons in 2000. By 2009, it had dropped below 30 million tons, and by 2013, it fell to 27.66 million tons. Notably, the demand for newsprint and advertising paper has seen a sharp decline, reflecting broader shifts in consumption patterns. 3. **Domestic**: Uncoated printing and writing paper remains a significant segment within the cultural paper category. However, the market is fragmented, with many small and medium-sized manufacturers offering products of varying quality. Prices range between 4,800 to 6,000 yuan per ton, making it difficult for smaller players to compete. In 2015, supply and demand for coated papers remained relatively stable, with minimal new capacity added and limited removal of outdated production. Currently, paper mill prices have reached their lowest point, and profit margins for major players like Chenming and Jindong have dropped significantly compared to previous years. While prices have started to rebound due to cost pressures, a sharp decline is unlikely. In contrast, electrostatic copy paper has shown more stable demand and a steadier market. Historical price trends from 2013 and 2014 indicate that major paper mills typically raised prices in the first quarter by around 100 yuan per ton, followed by a period of stability. Prices then began to decline again by July, returning to early-year levels, with only modest annual fluctuations. Looking ahead, the domestic paper market is expected to enter a deeper off-season period, with weak sentiment, slow shipping, and reduced sales. Market players are likely to maintain a cautious approach until demand begins to pick up later in the year.

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