Look at the paper market analysis last week to predict the trend of domestic paper operations

This week, the paper market remained largely stable, but the overall sentiment was weak. With the traditional paper industry entering its off-season, regional markets experienced sluggish demand, slow shipments, and a generally subdued atmosphere. Adding to the concerns, international paper prices have been on a downward trend, making the outlook even more uncertain. Market analysis shows that despite some stability in pricing, the market remains light due to seasonal factors. Demand is low across most regions, with little movement in orders and a lack of enthusiasm among buyers. The drop in global paper prices has further dampened confidence, leading to a cautious approach from both producers and consumers. Looking at the industry chain, domestic waste yellow paper continued to maintain its stability from last week. However, local markets remained depressed, with weak sales and a lack of buyer interest. The overall mood within the industry is not positive, as companies struggle with limited demand and tight margins. In terms of industry developments: 1. **Policy**: The "Water Pollution Prevention Action Plan," commonly referred to as "Water Ten," was approved by the State Council before the year and is expected to be officially released next month. After multiple revisions, it will introduce stricter regulations on sewage treatment, industrial wastewater, and pollutant discharge. This new regulatory environment is expected to become the norm, significantly impacting paper manufacturers. 2. **International**: According to data from the Japan Paper Federation, demand for paper and paperboard in Japan has been declining since reaching a peak of 31.96 million tons in 2000. By 2009, it had dropped below 30 million tons, and by 2013, it fell to 27.66 million tons. Particularly affected are newsprint and advertising paper, which have seen sharp declines in usage. 3. **Domestic**: Uncoated printing and writing paper plays a significant role in the cultural paper sector. However, the market is fragmented, with many small and medium-sized manufacturers offering products of varying quality. Prices range between 4,800 to 6,000 yuan per ton, making market operations challenging. In 2015, supply and demand for coated paper remained relatively stable, with minimal new capacity added and only a small amount of outdated production removed. Currently, prices have hit the floor for mills, and profitability for major players like Chenming and Jindong has declined sharply. While prices have started to rebound slightly due to cost pressures, a sharp drop is unlikely. Compared to other paper types, electrostatic copy paper has shown more stable demand and a steadier market. From 2013 to 2014, major paper mills typically raised prices in the first quarter by around 100 yuan per ton, then maintained them until July when they began to decline again. Overall, the market remained relatively stable throughout the year. Looking ahead, the domestic paper market is expected to enter its off-season, with weak demand and low sentiment. Manufacturers are likely to ship slowly and sell less in the coming weeks.

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