Large paper enterprises can't escape the peak season

Before and after the “Double 11”, it was the peak of the use of cartons, and its price and usage showed an upward trend. However, the reporter learned that in recent markets across the country, both the price of waste bins and the price of finished carton boxes are declining, and the amount of use is also reduced. Some scrap buyers have returned to their homes in advance because of bad business. A few days ago, the reporter conducted a survey on this, involving the entire industry chain from scrap buyers to paper mills to users.

The price is low, this year's waste paper market can't afford to play.

The price of this year's waste paper is basically a trace of a few characters. From the beginning of the year until April, it has been rising all the way. By around May, the national waste began to fluctuate all the way down, especially from September to now. The price dropped from 3,500/ton in the glory period to less than 2,000/ton today. The price fell home and could not find the north. The waste paper packing station owner was bitter. This year’s price, ups and downs, the family feels this year. The waste paper is exactly the same as the futures stock market. There are no two things. It can't be played.

This is also true in the market. On the morning of November 14, Lu Zhongwang reporter came to the waste collection point in the suburb of Taipei.

At a waste collection point in the suburbs of Taipei, the waste bins piled up the yard.

A waste collection site is full of unpacked waste bins, which makes it difficult to settle down. The boss who claimed to have 20 years of experience told reporters that these are seven or eight tons. According to the boss, the cartons he collects vary according to the quality and price. The average price is 5 cents a catty, and the good is 7 cents a catty. After receiving it, it is sent to the local paper mill. "When the business is good, one car can be collected in one day." "One car?" The reporter stunned. The boss explained that he can use a tricycle to pull more than two tons.

In the boss's impression, the highest purchase price of the carton is one per catty, almost double the current one. Due to the low purchase price, the acquisition point is a bit deserted, and only one ton of waste bins can be collected in one day.

According to the 7 cents per kilogram of waste carton, the cost per ton is 1400, and sold to the paper mill, the other party only gives 1400. Although dry waste purchases outdated local houses, they use their own family, but they also earn money or even lose money. "The main thing is to make up for the cheap cartons that I received. I could barely earn money when I was 1600 tons."

High inventory, loss at a loss, small paper mills want to survive this cold winter is very difficult

Individual business is struggling, and the business days of the family business are equally difficult.

Mr. Rong is the sales person in charge of a paper-making enterprise in Fujian and Taiwan. He is mainly responsible for checking orders and shipping. In the past, 15,000 tons of cardboard paper was sent out by his hand every month, and only 10,000 tons in October, a full three points. One, this is not a small number.

What made him feel a headache was that not only the sales of cardboard paper dropped sharply, but also the price plummeted. From the 5,600 tons per ton in the same period last year to less than 5,000 now, the cheaper one sold only 4,200 tons.

In the position of Mr. Rong, his understanding of this industry is much more comprehensive than the practitioners interviewed by the reporter. According to Mr. Rong, on the one hand, the boxboard paper used for the manufacture of cartons is in a state of supply and demand. On the other hand, many manufacturers choose to use white cardboard and gray board paper instead of cardboard paper because the prices of the two are very low, resulting in The price of cardboard paper is also not raised.

At present, the cardboard production machine of Mr. Rong's company is already in a state of suspension. There are 7,000 tons of cardboard on the warehouse. This figure is far less than one month's sales, but it has doubled in the same period of last year.

In the view of Mr. Rong, the overall situation is not very good. It is another important reason for the decline in sales of cardboard paper. “Real estate is a bit weak, and the sales of corresponding appliances are also affected. The required packaging materials are less, and our company produces The cardboard boxes made of cardboard paper are more used in household appliances."

Mr. Rong said that the prospect of cardboard paper is still good, because the national economy is growing, the demand for packaging materials is increasing at a rate of 2% per year, but the demand has also increased. The original packaging materials can be recycled with cardboard paper. Now people are demanding the use of whole wood pulp box paper. Their company has purchased a whole wood pulp production line, ready to put into production next year, which is the measure taken to meet environmental requirements.

According to Mr. Rong’s judgment, the transfer will appear in March next year. “The price has been below the cost, and the sale is a loss.” Many small paper mills may not be able to survive this winter, and after the Spring Festival. It is the off-season of paper sales, and the use of cartons is becoming less and less, leading to the integration of resources within the industry.

The amount of double eleven packages is true, but the amount of carton is sharply reduced.

As a member of the carton, Xiao Song deeply understands the distress of Mr. Rong.

At noon on November 16, when the reporter saw Xiao Song near the turntable, he was sitting around his desk with several colleagues for lunch. Xiao Song is a staff member of a courier company. This is a very busy time. There are a few cartons of express delivery in the office, which are in stark contrast to the bags that are hung on the shelves in the next workshop.

As a county-level outlet of a courier company, Xiao Song’s place of work can receive 4,000 copies of express delivery each day during the “Double 11” period. This number is four times that of usual. In the past, these express delivery were basically packed in cartons. Now only half of them are like this, and the other half has been wrapped in a bag. "Now clothes and other things that are not afraid of being broken are packed in bags, and food is usually packed in boxes."

Policy, demand, and economic situation are all unfavorable, and paper price expectations are weak.

Since the second half of this year, the National Bureau of Statistics has announced price changes in important production materials for 12 times. The price of high-intensity corrugated paper has declined 11 times, and there has been a small rebound in mid-August. After mid-September, the decline in paper prices has accelerated significantly, and the price per ton of paper since September has fallen by more than a thousand.

Another data from the Bureau of Statistics, the producer price index for the paper industry producers, was only 99.9 in October, the fifth consecutive month of decline, and the first time this year fell below 100.

Since cartons are widely used in food, beverage, clothing, electronics, home appliances, daily chemicals, machinery, etc., the main demand is generated by the consumption or export of downstream enterprises, so the carton market and the economic situation are very closely related, and the waste carton is used as The production of raw materials is also affected by the economic situation.

Liu Hui, an analyst at Zhuo Chuang, said that on the one hand, this year's Sino-US trade war has affected some export-oriented cartons. On the other hand, the overall domestic consumption is not particularly strong. Many analysts in the early stage believed that real estate investment There has been a decline, and the economic situation, including a certain degree of shrinkage in domestic demand, is a demand situation.

In terms of supply, many companies' production lines have been put into production one after another, and the output has shown a slight increase. The price of cardboard boxes is naturally difficult to rise.

According to Liu Hui's experience, the prices of cardboard and carton will rise before the Spring Festival in previous years, but from this year's situation, including "Double 11" and "Golden September and Silver 10" have not met expectations, many paper companies are cautious. The pessimistic attitude is that even if the price rises, the magnitude will be small.

After the state issued a ban on the import of solid waste, the waste will not come in, and the gap created by it will need to be scrapped by the state, and the price of the national waste cardboard will rise rapidly. However, prices have to follow demand, long-term demand is not strong enough, paper companies can not afford the pressure of rising costs, the price can not be sustained. As the market digests the import tightening policy, its support for the price of waste paper is also weakening.

At the same time, due to the rising price of waste paper, which has driven the price of finished products, many downstream companies have chosen other packaging materials for cost reasons, which has reduced the sales of cardboard and paper boxes.

As far as the current situation is concerned, the volume of the peak season is significantly different from that of the same period of the previous year. However, the year-round situation has not formed a similar roller coaster trend compared with previous years, and the change is not particularly obvious.

It is understood that Article 52 of the "Electronic Commerce Law of the People's Republic of China", which will be implemented on January 1, 2019, stipulates that express delivery logistics service providers shall use environmentally-friendly packaging materials in accordance with regulations to achieve reduction of packaging materials and Reuse.

Some analysts believe that the implementation of this regulation will not only further promote the use of green packaging materials, but also increase the utilization rate of cardboard boxes, thereby reducing purchases and lowering prices.

Responsible editor: Miao

This article is posted on the website for the purpose of transmitting more information and does not imply endorsement of its views or confirmation of its description.

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